“ I hope this letter finds you in good health. My name is Ted Eady and I own the Odem Theater Pub in Redmond Oregon. My pub has licenses both by Deschutes County Department of Health and OLCC. I suspect you have control over both. I contacted my health inspector at the beginning of the week about reopening. We had a discussion that the areas that showed digital media had been licensed by the OLCC as dining and beverage areas.
Those spaces were granted a license to consume food and beverage. Each of those rooms have 40 approved seats. We have limited the seating in that area of the Pub to 12 each. Because of that we exceed the 6 feet social distancing recommended by the CDC. I personally disinfect the rooms when customers leave with alcohol. After spending about a thousand dollars of precious capital, we booked content and brought back staff. I work both on the line and at the front of the house. I am not at a computer. After we got settled in on the day I saw that my health inspector, Emily Freeland sent me an email that you had demanded I not serve food and beverage in the licensed areas that showed digital media.
Hi Ted – We received clarification from the state today that says that theaters are to remain closed. Restaurants can open but the theatre portion is to remain closed at this time. Please let me know if you have further questions.
Thanks, Emily I asked for clarification but at 3:42pm Friday I never got a reply. We remain open.
In my case I have been open 3 days. On a normal weekend day, we set a goal of 100 tickets a day and usually do better than that. Friday, I sold 14 tickets over 5 shows, 18 Saturday and 14 Sunday. Even though restaurants and pubs are open it is a slow go. You really have no valid reason to not let me have 12 people in the theaters. I am no different than the bar that has walls of big screen tv’s. Well I am different because I have social distancing. We have installed plexiglass shields and have an ample supply sanitizer we make ourselves. I have 2 infrared thermometers that were due to arrive the 15th but did not show up. Because of the layout we can only seat 12 in the front of the pub. It is important for us to have the theater area available for dining. One option would be to do shorts with the lights up.
Later in this letter I will go over some of the facts as it relates to Deschutes County and the State of Oregon. There is not a public health emergency in Deschutes county and there was not one any time during the lockdown. What is clear is there is an economic crisis that will potentially be more severe than the depression of the thirties. I will cover that in this email as well.
If the state follows through with shutting down the other 2 dining areas I will be sending this email out to about 85 contacts in both the news community and those in the legal
community that have filed amicus briefs in the recent past on the 2nd, 5th, 8th, 9th and 14th amendments. It is my belief that you have violated my constitutional rights with your order to close the dining areas of my pub that show digital content. Specifically, I am sure you are familiar with Obergefell v. Hodges. Your decision to mandate that the portion of my pub that is licensed for food and beverage that shows digital content be closed denies me of equal protection under the law. Other licensed facilities have not been treated this way and is a violation of the 14th Amendment. Those other bars and restaurants have large, flat screens showing digital content. I have seen some in Bend with DLP projectors. Also last year in Timbs v. Indiana the SOCTUS ruled that the 8th Amendment applies to state government. When you suspend my licenses, I will bring a claim against the state for excessive fines. You have denied me due process under both the 5th amendment and 14th amendment. The 9th amendment is underused but it is clear that your actions have deprived me of my natural right to earn a living. When you shut me down without recognizing my constitutional rights I will establish a GoFundMe page to raise capital for my legal defense and to seek damages from your actions. Below I will lay out some of the facts as they relate to the Covid-19 lockdown.
Oregon was the 17th known case in the U.S. back on February 27th. We know there were 2 deaths in early to mid-February in California. France is looking into a case in December. Northeastern University has a model that indicates the Covid infections started in January. I started keeping spreadsheets on March 14 after getting frustrated with the data online disappearing. Back in mid March the State of Washington had 673 cases and New York led the nation with 732. Oregon was at 39 cases. By March 19th Oregon was up to 88 cases and was the 23rd highest case count in the 50 states and DC. Currently Oregon sits at 41st highest, 11th lowest. Oregon broke 1000 cases on April 5th. It took 16 days, April 20th to break 2000 cases and another 18 days to break 3000 May 7th when 3068 cases were reported. Basically, since April 5th the Covid-19 cases have been flat with day to day fluctuations.
April 1st New York did 18,718 tests and reported 11,734 new cases. That was 49.67% of tests were positive. On that day Oregon reported 46 new cases out of 1,042 tests for a ratio of 4.41% positive. The 4.41% was the 8th lowest of any state. By May 1st New York was down to 33.24% of test positive while the State of Oregon was basically unchanged at 4.43%. By yesterday New York was down to single digits at 5.95% and Oregon at 2.64%. Oregon reported 3612 total cases yesterday out of the 92,199 tests done. A 3.95% ratio. The lowest ratio in the nation is Alaska at 1.18%, Hawaii at 1.56%, Montana at 1.79%, West Virginia at 1.99% and then Oregon at 3.95%. So yes, 46 states are higher than Oregon. New Jersey leads the nation with 30.54% of tests positive followed by New York at 25.56%.
When the lockdown started we were told it was to prevent the medical facilities from being overloaded. The reality is even New York ended up with extra beds. The Models have been wrong from the start. There is no question Covid-19 is not the flu. 2017 is the last year the CDC has statistical information posted for Oregon. They reported 573 deaths in Oregon that year. Did we close the economy then? No. Oregon sits at 137 deaths Sunday May 18th. Not much chance we get to 573 this Covid season. New York State has tested for antibodies for Covid-19 and reported that 12.3 percent of the test showed antibodies for the Covid=19
virus. Looking at that statewide would indicate that there could be 2.4 million additional cases in the state. So, no Covid is not the flu. When people get the flu, they know they are sick. That is not the case with all Covid-19 infections. Looking at the morbidity statistics from New York we find that 89.7% of deaths, 20,290 deaths, had comorbidity of 39,889 (total of only top 10 comorbidities). Basically, an average of two for every death. Oregon is similar with 95% of deaths 60 and older. In New York 64.7% of all deaths were over the age of 70. Adding in 60-69 we end up with 84.30% of all deaths. Having been a Certified Financial Planner in the past I am pretty familiar about actuarial tables and life insurance underwriting. People that are sick are not expected to live as long as those that are healthy.
It is estimated nationwide that 25% of deaths from Covid-19 happen to nursing home patients. Out of the 137 deaths in Oregon 78 are reported to be nursing home residents. 57% of the deaths were people that were already sheltered in place. A 2010 study published in the Journal American Geriatric Society followed 1,817 nursing home residents who died between 1992 and 2006. They found the Median length of stay prior to death was 5 months and the average stay was 13.7 . It is not politically correct to say this but the reality is life expectancy for those 78 people was not long. With or without Covid. It is staggering to think the state of Oregon has ruined the lives of so many to save so few. The proper course moving forward would be to locate those with poor health and have them shelter in place.
In a conversation with the information officer from St. Charles she indicated the maximum number of Covid-19 beds was 15 peaking in the first week of April. The week of May 12th she said they had 1 patient. She also indicated that they were losing 1,000,000 dollars a day. She also indicated that the number of the 290 beds that were occupied was less than 100. When I asked about adding additional beds like New York did she said they had plans in place to increase capacity substantially. As we remember back to the start of this lock down it was all about protecting medical systems from being overwhelmed. That did not happen and there is no information to indicate that it will in the future of the Covid-19 outbreak.
In 1929 the unemployment rate was 3.5%. That was the year of the October stock market crash. In 1930 it moved up to 8.7%. By 1932 it was 23.60. By the start of the New Deal unemployment peaked at 24.70%. It stayed above 14% until the start of WW2. At that point the Roosevelt administration traded debt for jobs to get through WW2. The Dow was at 379 in September before the October 29th crash. The market was, by November 13th, trading at 198. By 1932 it hit bottom at 41.81. To summarize after the crash could be thought of as the good days in 1929.
Where are we at? Well as I write this unemployment is most likely above 30%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS has a database of 60,000 households that it surveys monthly the week of the 12th. They use this information to develop the unemployment rate and other demographic information. The week of March 12 the BLS reported 7.1 million out of work. Since then, specifically because of the lock downs, there have been over 36.5 million new unemployment claims. As we are all aware there are still about 7 million that have not been able to effectively apply and are yet to get counted. When we add these numbers up we get to 50.60 million unemployed. That puts the rate at 30.48%. That does not count the business owners that have closed. As we move forward more layoffs are expected as States lose huge chunks of tax
revenue that may never come back. There will be public employees laid off. Look for medical workers to be laid off because of the damage caused to the industry by the lockdown. As part of the Covid-19 aid package the airlines are paying the employees until the fall. When that money runs out they will head to the unemployment rolls.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow estimates the GDP will decline 42.6 in the second quarter. That number is off the chart and will have a huge effect on people’s buying and saving habits. We can expect a contraction in the building sector as people scale back their plans. In talking with people there are signs this is already happening. Just like in the 2008 financial crisis asset values in all sectors of the real estate market will suffer price declines as demand evaporates. This will put pressure on the financial system as banks realize what was a solid appraisal 4 months ago is wrong today. We can expect to see appraisers, mortgage brokers and the escrow companies to see increased layoffs. Now that college football is not happening you can look for an end of women sports as colleges run out of money due to no football attendance.
To summarize my review of the Covid-19 science it is simple to say a few points. First the virus is deadly to sick people that reside in nursing home facilities. People confined to a nursing home have short life expectancies. If you are over 60 and have health issues the virus can be deadly with about 90% of deaths having underlying health issues. Second, the studies by Stanford, USC and the State of New York testing for antibodies shows that more people get the Covid-19 and do not know it than get it and get sick. The actual exposure to the population is up to ten times the actual number of reported cases. Third, Oregon is a state at the low end of infections and is the top 5 of states with the lowest positive to test ratio in the nation. Fourth, Deschutes County has ample facilities for health care. Fifth, Oregon has never experienced significant Covid cases and the march to each level from zero to 1000, 2000 and then 3000 cases has been a slow and steady process. It is clear that the policy adopted by Governor Brown had some problems. She should have concentrated on the long-term care facilities first. We all knew about the Kirkland Care Facility in the very beginning. After that she should have focused on those above the age of 60 with health issues. Instead the state took an approach that will devastate Oregon’s economy for years.
Thank you for your consideration. All I know today is iy was not that busy out there Saturday and Sunday. It’s going to be a long slow climb out of the hole we are in. I have no idea how you folks think you’re going to keep the doors open in Salem. The sooner we get started the better. 11 cases today I see with 2157 tests. That puts the state at 0.51%. Pretty sure a half a percent indicates you have very little basis for shutting down dining in my theaters licensed for food and beverage. We are not a theater. I raise my own grass fed beef for the Pub. We make our buns inhouse. Our Pizza dough and marinara sauce are made fresh daily. We pride ourselves on having vegan options. In short, we run a scratch kitchen. We get less than half of our revenue from films and the rest from food and beverage. A traditional theater sells only concessions. Please do not label me as a theater, that is not correct.”